Shaping the future with intelligence, group intelligence



Recently, a few Romanian and foreign experts from Europe, Asia and U.S. gathered in Bucharest to launch the first wiki platform for the global community of foresight experts: ForWiki. The international online platform - in English - has been developed by the Romanian foresight specialists, as a result of the project "Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education". The launching event took place at the workshop "Jointly Shaping and Launching the Foresight Wiki".  We have tried to find out more details about the subject from two of the participants: Dr. Philine Warnke (Germany), workshop coordinator, and Dr. Ziauddin Sardar, writer, journalist, editor (Futures, multidisciplinary journal published by Elsevier) and professor at The City University, London, United Kingdom. Tomorrow's science and transdisciplinarity, the attitude toward future, the role of history in the study of the future, and what is to be done for shaping a future closer to our desires - these were the topics discussed. Finally, both discussions have the very same conclusion: the group intelligence is shaping the future.

IMG_7860zswmDr. Ziauddin Sardar is one of the leading Britain intellectuals. A simple Google search revealed almost 60,000 pages mentioning his name. In 30 years he wrote or edited 45 books. He has worked as journalist for Nature and New Scientist. His research interests are vast "ranging from Islamic studies and futures studies to science policy, literary criticism, and information science to cultural relations, art criticism and critical theory" as it is written on his official site.

What can you say about ForWiki platform?

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "It is a project for the community of people who think about the future."

So, the targeted people are specialists...

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "Most simply, it is a project about all varieties of people who think about the future, who practice what we call foresight. ForWiki is a portal for those people who are professionally interested in the future in different ways."

Experts write articles, develop scenarios but society is made also of ordinary people. So, what we should know about future?

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "Future is not something that you have to wait. It is something that you can share and it is something that you can act about about in this very moment.  It is all about action. Let me give you just one example: if you want to do something about the climate change you should use less energy. The time of the action is now."

Generally speaking, the Bucharest workshop was about theory, practice and living in a knowledge society. What kind of society is envisioned?

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "This is the point! Different futurists will have different visions of the society. It is not a single vision. It is very much a pluralistic exercise. The emphasis is on alternative future, what is going to happen in 10 - 20 years time. Need not be simply an extension of what is happening today. It could be different things but the possibilities are vast. And we want to know the possibilities and to choose the desirable possibilities to move towards."

... To be prepared...

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "To be prepared for that and also to create opportunities to move in that direction. Our purpose is to explore these variations and see how we can best realize them and how we can have a common agreement amongst different visions of the future, come up with something that is based on wisdom of consensus and create some sort of patterns and some sort of direction towards desirable future. And you do this in a number of ways. Foresight is just one matter; the emphasis is on exploration. So, it is an exercise of imagination, an exercise of using objective matters to acquire subjective results."

Coming back to the workshop, what is the news that the workshop brings into attention? There are lessons learned, there are next steps to be taken...
Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "I think the main message is that future needs our attention. Urgently! Future is not something that we can just leave and not worry about. There are some many things now going wrong in society, there are so many complexities that we do need to pay attention to what is happening in terms of the direction we have taking. And be concern about it. If we look at the numbers of things all the last couple of years: huge financial crisis, economic meltdown, serious concern with swine flu, climate change; a volcano has erupted recently; so, things are much interconnected. We need to be conscious about what is happening, we need to study them all the time and be aware of what is happening and we have to develop strategies, methods, systems so that we can move away from the highway to disaster and go to a more desirable future."

Let us imagine that we are at 2025 time horizon. How is the future in your opinion?

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "I always said that there is no one answer; at the very least there could be two answers.... "

...The good and the bad scenarios; cold and hot; sweet and bitter...

Dr. Ziauddin Sardar: "Precisely. My thesis is that it is not good having a hot and a cold answer. What tends to happen are things in between. And it is the things in between which are more interesting. And these things you cannot just come up instantly. They have to be studied and discovered. The hot and cold answer I can create just by sitting here. But the area in between I need to study to act, and to put into practice. That's the message: don't seat there and assume the best or assume the worst, go out and study all the possible things that can happen in between and act to create them."

The Bucharest workshop was coordinated by Dr. Philine Warnke, researcher at the Competence Center Innovation and Technology Management and Foresight from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Germany. We have tried to find out how science will look in the future. Especially, if transdisciplinary science is the natural consequence of the interdisciplinary science of today.

IMG_7860pwwmDr. Philine Warnke: "I am not sure it will be the next step but I think it should be. That it is what is really needed at the moment. I am not sure it's really going in this direction but I think this is what it's really urgently needed: not interdisciplinarity but transdisciplinarity in new sense".

Do you have an example? What is the researchers' reaction to this?

Dr. Philine Warnke: "Everybody's saying 'you have a point because there is something we're always miss, something in between; for example, we set a human-machine cooperation, so that should be one transdisciplinary perspective because we have all these new technologies... they say yes, it's a good idea but the problem is to implement this because communities they don't even talk, they do not have a common language".

What about the workshop in Bucharest?

Dr. Philine Warnke: "I really felt that was a community of practitioners, something that we're always talking about and here it really emerged and it really became reality."

So being together all the experts was the strongest point of the workshop.
Dr. Philine Warnke: "Everybody was supportive and trying not to criticise; and if they were critical they also came with alternative solutions to improve things or do things in a different way"

New members will join and the community will grow. How can an expert of the past be involved in the study of the future?

Dr. Philine Warnke: "We always say that is very important to foresight to talk about the future to understand the past. There are historians of technology that tell us that technology doesn't grow like patterns tell us."

The two dialogues have in common the idea that seems to be unique, at least in terms of how the day of tomorrow should be judged with responsibility: the group intelligence is shaping the future.

Notes:

Interviews were taken on Friday, April 16, immediately after the workshop "Launching and Jointly Shaping the Foresight Wiki. For more details about the Bucharest's workshop click here

For Futures magazine click here
  
For more info about the project "Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education" click here.

For FORwiki platform visit www.forwiki.ro

Comments



Submit Your Comment
Your name


Title


Comment


Type in the textbox the characters displayed in the image

Visual verification


Submit Comment

Your comments will not show until they are aproved by the editor.